Monthly Archives: November 2013

Home Win Probability Using SRS

One of my favorite rating systems for NBA teams is the Simple Rating System (SRS). A team’s SRS rating is made up of two things: average margin of victory and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above or below average, where zero is average.

These ratings can be used to estimate the probability that home team A will defeat visiting team B. Let me explain how I went about the process of converting SRS ratings into win probabilities.

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