Using the team ratings found on KenPom.com, I ran 10,000 simulations of this year’s NCAA tournament. A summary of the results of those simulations appears below.
I used the K.I.S.S.* method for these simulations, so I did not make any adjustments for injured players (e.g., Kansas and Joel Embiid), “hot” teams (e.g., Michigan St.), or distance traveled (e.g., Arizona will not have to travel very far in their regional).
* Keep It Simple, Stupid
First, here are descriptions for each table heading:
| L-R1 | Percent of simulations team lost in First Round |
| L-R2 | Percent of simulations team lost in Second Round |
| L-R3 | Percent of simulations team lost in Third Round |
| L-RS | Percent of simulations team lost in Regional Semifinal |
| L-RF | Percent of simulations team lost in Regional Final |
| L-NS | Percent of simulations team lost in National Semifinal |
| L-NF | Percent of simulations team lost in National Final |
| W-NF | Percent of simulations team won National Championship |
Now, here are the results:
| Team | L-R1 | L-R2 | L-R3 | L-RS | L-RF | L-NS | L-NF | W-NC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany | 47.2 | 50.7 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| American | 82.8 | 12.5 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Arizona | 4.0 | 25.0 | 15.2 | 15.8 | 15.4 | 8.7 | 15.8 | |
| Arizona St. | 52.7 | 30.1 | 11.4 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| BYU | 59.7 | 26.5 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| Baylor | 41.6 | 35.6 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | |
| Cal Poly | 37.8 | 58.7 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cincinnati | 43.5 | 29.5 | 17.1 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | |
| Coastal Carolina | 96.6 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Colorado | 71.8 | 23.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Connecticut | 36.6 | 37.9 | 12.0 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | |
| Creighton | 12.5 | 27.5 | 23.1 | 19.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 4.0 | |
| Dayton | 67.7 | 21.0 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Delaware | 84.1 | 12.5 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Duke | 15.3 | 31.1 | 19.7 | 19.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 3.2 | |
| Eastern Kentucky | 87.9 | 9.6 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Florida | 4.1 | 24.5 | 20.9 | 15.7 | 12.8 | 9.1 | 12.8 | |
| George Washington | 50.4 | 38.7 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| Gonzaga | 49.8 | 36.0 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | |
| Harvard | 56.5 | 24.9 | 12.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | |
| Iowa | 58.0 | 15.6 | 15.4 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Iowa St. | 27.0 | 32.4 | 22.5 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | |
| Kansas | 12.1 | 31.0 | 22.8 | 17.9 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 3.2 | |
| Kansas St. | 64.9 | 26.5 | 6.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Kentucky | 35.1 | 41.7 | 14.4 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | |
| Louisiana Lafayette | 87.5 | 9.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Louisville | 12.9 | 15.2 | 27.7 | 13.2 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 12.3 | |
| Manhattan | 87.1 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Massachusetts | 66.5 | 22.5 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Memphis | 49.6 | 39.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| Mercer | 84.7 | 11.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Michigan | 9.0 | 30.2 | 29.8 | 19.5 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 2.0 | |
| Michigan St. | 15.9 | 33.1 | 29.0 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | |
| Milwaukee | 92.3 | 6.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Mount St. Mary’s | 52.8 | 45.2 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Nebraska | 58.4 | 27.6 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| New Mexico | 42.5 | 33.5 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | |
| New Mexico St. | 72.3 | 17.4 | 8.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| North Carolina | 40.0 | 27.5 | 18.5 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | |
| North Carolina Central | 73.0 | 18.2 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| North Carolina St. | 57.2 | 26.6 | 13.7 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| North Dakota St. | 62.8 | 22.8 | 11.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| Ohio St. | 32.3 | 32.1 | 18.0 | 10.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | |
| Oklahoma | 37.2 | 30.3 | 23.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | |
| Oklahoma St. | 50.2 | 35.5 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | |
| Oregon | 40.3 | 32.2 | 15.8 | 7.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 | |
| Pittsburgh | 28.2 | 48.1 | 11.3 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | |
| Providence | 60.0 | 22.0 | 12.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| Saint Joseph’s | 63.4 | 25.9 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| Saint Louis | 43.1 | 42.4 | 10.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| San Diego St. | 27.7 | 29.5 | 28.7 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | |
| Stanford | 57.5 | 26.0 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | |
| Stephen F. Austin | 72.5 | 17.2 | 8.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Syracuse | 16.5 | 34.2 | 23.8 | 14.7 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.9 | |
| Tennessee | 42.0 | 17.9 | 19.7 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Texas | 47.3 | 32.2 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| Texas Southern | 62.2 | 36.7 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Tulsa | 73.8 | 18.7 | 6.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| UCLA | 26.2 | 33.7 | 24.9 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 | |
| VCU | 27.5 | 30.3 | 24.9 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | |
| Villanova | 7.7 | 29.6 | 20.9 | 20.8 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 5.4 | |
| Virginia | 3.4 | 19.1 | 24.4 | 18.1 | 13.9 | 9.7 | 11.3 | |
| Weber St. | 96.0 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Western Michigan | 83.5 | 12.7 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Wichita St. | 4.6 | 27.7 | 30.7 | 12.8 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 7.6 | |
| Wisconsin | 17.2 | 28.9 | 24.6 | 16.8 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 2.3 | |
| Wofford | 91.0 | 7.4 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Xavier | 42.8 | 30.2 | 21.0 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Just in case you’re having trouble reading that table, here is a written breakdown for Xavier:
- Lost in the First Round in 42.8 percent of all simulations.
- Lost in the Second Round in 30.2 percent of all simulations.
- Lost in the Third Round in 21.0 percent of all simulations.
- Lost in the Regional Semifinal in 4.3 percent of all simulations.
- Lost in the Regional Final in 1.0 percent of all simulations.
- Lost in the National Semifinal in 0.4 percent of all simulations.
- Lost in the National Final in 0.2 percent of all simulations.
- Won the National Championship in 0.1 percent of all simulations.
One final note: These are for entertainment purposes only. If you lose your house betting on the NCAA tournament, don’t blame me. On the other hand, if you win big, by all means send me a check.
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