2014 NCAA Tournament Forecast

Using the team ratings found on KenPom.com, I ran 10,000 simulations of this year’s NCAA tournament. A summary of the results of those simulations appears below.

I used the K.I.S.S.* method for these simulations, so I did not make any adjustments for injured players (e.g., Kansas and Joel Embiid), “hot” teams (e.g., Michigan St.), or distance traveled (e.g., Arizona will not have to travel very far in their regional).

* Keep It Simple, Stupid

First, here are descriptions for each table heading:

L-R1 Percent of simulations team lost in First Round
L-R2 Percent of simulations team lost in Second Round
L-R3 Percent of simulations team lost in Third Round
L-RS Percent of simulations team lost in Regional Semifinal
L-RF Percent of simulations team lost in Regional Final
L-NS Percent of simulations team lost in National Semifinal
L-NF Percent of simulations team lost in National Final
W-NF Percent of simulations team won National Championship

Now, here are the results:

Team L-R1 L-R2 L-R3 L-RS L-RF L-NS L-NF W-NC
Albany 47.2 50.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
American   82.8 12.5 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arizona   4.0 25.0 15.2 15.8 15.4 8.7 15.8
Arizona St.   52.7 30.1 11.4 4.3 0.9 0.3 0.1
BYU   59.7 26.5 9.3 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.1
Baylor   41.6 35.6 12.4 7.2 2.2 0.6 0.3
Cal Poly 37.8 58.7 3.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati   43.5 29.5 17.1 5.2 2.9 1.1 0.6
Coastal Carolina   96.6 3.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Colorado   71.8 23.7 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Connecticut   36.6 37.9 12.0 7.8 3.5 1.4 0.7
Creighton   12.5 27.5 23.1 19.6 9.0 4.3 4.0
Dayton   67.7 21.0 7.5 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
Delaware   84.1 12.5 2.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Duke   15.3 31.1 19.7 19.1 7.8 3.7 3.2
Eastern Kentucky   87.9 9.6 2.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida   4.1 24.5 20.9 15.7 12.8 9.1 12.8
George Washington   50.4 38.7 6.9 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.1
Gonzaga   49.8 36.0 5.9 4.3 2.4 0.9 0.6
Harvard   56.5 24.9 12.2 3.8 1.7 0.7 0.3
Iowa 58.0 15.6 15.4 5.5 3.7 1.2 0.4 0.2
Iowa St.   27.0 32.4 22.5 10.7 4.4 1.9 1.1
Kansas   12.1 31.0 22.8 17.9 8.2 4.8 3.2
Kansas St.   64.9 26.5 6.4 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Kentucky   35.1 41.7 14.4 4.3 2.5 1.2 0.7
Louisiana Lafayette   87.5 9.3 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisville   12.9 15.2 27.7 13.2 11.8 7.0 12.3
Manhattan   87.1 7.7 4.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts   66.5 22.5 7.0 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
Memphis   49.6 39.1 7.2 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1
Mercer   84.7 11.3 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Michigan   9.0 30.2 29.8 19.5 6.7 2.9 2.0
Michigan St.   15.9 33.1 29.0 10.1 6.3 3.2 2.4
Milwaukee   92.3 6.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary’s 52.8 45.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nebraska   58.4 27.6 8.4 4.1 1.1 0.3 0.1
New Mexico   42.5 33.5 12.9 7.1 2.5 1.1 0.5
New Mexico St.   72.3 17.4 8.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
North Carolina   40.0 27.5 18.5 8.8 3.3 1.3 0.6
North Carolina Central   73.0 18.2 6.8 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 57.2 26.6 13.7 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Dakota St.   62.8 22.8 11.5 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.1
Ohio St.   32.3 32.1 18.0 10.6 4.0 1.8 1.2
Oklahoma   37.2 30.3 23.4 5.1 2.9 0.8 0.4
Oklahoma St.   50.2 35.5 6.5 4.0 2.5 0.7 0.7
Oregon   40.3 32.2 15.8 7.9 2.3 0.8 0.6
Pittsburgh   28.2 48.1 11.3 6.2 3.4 1.6 1.0
Providence   60.0 22.0 12.0 4.1 1.4 0.5 0.1
Saint Joseph’s   63.4 25.9 6.3 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.1
Saint Louis   43.1 42.4 10.2 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.1
San Diego St.   27.7 29.5 28.7 7.2 4.2 1.7 1.0
Stanford   57.5 26.0 9.7 5.0 1.2 0.4 0.2
Stephen F. Austin   72.5 17.2 8.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Syracuse   16.5 34.2 23.8 14.7 5.8 3.1 1.9
Tennessee 42.0 17.9 19.7 8.8 7.3 2.4 1.1 0.9
Texas   47.3 32.2 13.1 5.5 1.3 0.4 0.1
Texas Southern 62.2 36.7 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tulsa   73.8 18.7 6.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
UCLA   26.2 33.7 24.9 7.4 4.4 2.2 1.2
VCU   27.5 30.3 24.9 8.1 4.9 2.6 1.7
Villanova   7.7 29.6 20.9 20.8 10.1 5.5 5.4
Virginia   3.4 19.1 24.4 18.1 13.9 9.7 11.3
Weber St.   96.0 3.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan   83.5 12.7 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wichita St.   4.6 27.7 30.7 12.8 10.7 6.0 7.6
Wisconsin   17.2 28.9 24.6 16.8 7.0 3.3 2.3
Wofford   91.0 7.4 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Xavier 42.8 30.2 21.0 4.3 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1

Just in case you’re having trouble reading that table, here is a written breakdown for Xavier:

  • Lost in the First Round in 42.8 percent of all simulations.
  • Lost in the Second Round in 30.2 percent of all simulations.
  • Lost in the Third Round in 21.0 percent of all simulations.
  • Lost in the Regional Semifinal in 4.3 percent of all simulations.
  • Lost in the Regional Final in 1.0 percent of all simulations.
  • Lost in the National Semifinal in 0.4 percent of all simulations.
  • Lost in the National Final in 0.2 percent of all simulations.
  • Won the National Championship in 0.1 percent of all simulations.

One final note: These are for entertainment purposes only. If you lose your house betting on the NCAA tournament, don’t blame me. On the other hand, if you win big, by all means send me a check.

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