Using the team ratings found on KenPom.com, I ran 10,000 simulations of this year’s NCAA tournament. A summary of the results of those simulations appears below.
I used the K.I.S.S.* method for these simulations, so I did not make any adjustments for suspended players (e.g., St. John’s and Chris Obekpa), “hot” teams (e.g., Notre Dame), or distance traveled (e.g., Dayton will essentially be playing a home game in the First Four).
* Keep It Simple, Stupidby