2015 NCAA Tournament Forecast

Using the team ratings found on KenPom.com, I ran 10,000 simulations of this year’s NCAA tournament. A summary of the results of those simulations appears below.

I used the K.I.S.S.* method for these simulations, so I did not make any adjustments for suspended players (e.g., St. John’s and Chris Obekpa), “hot” teams (e.g., Notre Dame), or distance traveled (e.g., Dayton will essentially be playing a home game in the First Four).

* Keep It Simple, Stupid

First, here are descriptions for each table heading:

L-R1 Percent of simulations team lost in First Round
L-R2 Percent of simulations team lost in Second Round
L-R3 Percent of simulations team lost in Third Round
L-RS Percent of simulations team lost in Regional Semifinal
L-RF Percent of simulations team lost in Regional Final
L-NS Percent of simulations team lost in National Semifinal
L-NF Percent of simulations team lost in National Final
W-NC Percent of simulations team won National Championship

Now, here are the results:

Team L-R1 L-R2 L-R3 L-RS L-RF L-NS L-NF W-NC
Albany   89.2 8.5 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona   2.3 15.7 15.7 24.5 20.0 7.9 14.0
Arkansas   27.0 41.3 24.0 5.9 1.5 0.3 0.1
BYU 42.7 30.0 15.5 9.3 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.1
Baylor   22.4 28.0 34.7 9.1 4.1 1.1 0.7
Belmont   95.4 3.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 49.6 28.2 15.0 5.8 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Buffalo   63.5 19.9 14.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Butler   51.7 27.7 11.9 6.8 1.4 0.4 0.2
Cincinnati   43.4 50.3 3.1 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.1
Coastal Carolina   95.3 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Davidson   55.4 32.7 7.3 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1
Dayton 50.4 27.9 14.8 5.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Duke   7.5 22.0 25.9 19.0 13.3 8.0 4.4
Eastern Washington   83.4 14.4 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgetown   16.7 49.2 21.3 8.0 3.5 1.1 0.3
Georgia   60.9 31.4 4.8 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
Georgia St.   77.6 14.6 6.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Gonzaga   6.1 23.6 21.9 19.5 14.4 9.1 5.5
Hampton 72.4 27.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Harvard   79.1 13.2 6.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Indiana   73.9 17.8 5.8 2.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Iowa   44.6 38.8 9.3 4.9 1.8 0.6 0.1
Iowa St.   13.7 32.1 29.8 13.4 7.1 2.9 1.0
Kansas   16.2 35.1 21.8 19.3 5.0 1.5 1.1
Kentucky   2.1 8.5 8.5 13.7 21.7 12.4 33.1
LSU   51.6 39.8 5.6 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Lafayette   96.9 2.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisville   21.8 41.3 25.0 7.6 2.7 1.3 0.4
Manhattan 27.6 70.6 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Maryland   37.8 31.0 26.9 2.8 1.3 0.1 0.1
Michigan St.   39.1 44.9 8.0 5.4 1.6 0.8 0.2
Mississippi 57.3 25.4 11.1 5.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
New Mexico St.   83.8 12.7 2.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Carolina   20.9 24.7 35.4 12.4 4.7 1.3 0.6
North Carolina St.   48.4 42.1 6.1 2.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
North Dakota St.   93.9 5.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Florida 38.9 55.7 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northeastern   87.9 9.8 2.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Iowa   14.8 30.4 33.6 12.7 4.8 2.6 0.9
Notre Dame   12.1 33.8 24.4 21.0 5.6 1.8 1.2
Ohio St.   45.8 44.0 5.2 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.1
Oklahoma   10.8 27.1 38.4 13.5 5.3 3.4 1.5
Oklahoma St.   46.5 43.9 5.6 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
Oregon   53.5 39.1 4.5 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Providence   43.9 34.5 15.9 4.0 1.2 0.3 0.1
Purdue   56.6 39.5 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Robert Morris 61.1 36.8 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
SMU   38.6 32.3 18.1 6.5 3.3 0.9 0.3
San Diego St.   42.7 40.4 10.2 4.4 1.8 0.5 0.1
St. John’s   57.3 31.9 7.1 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.1
Stephen F. Austin   73.8 14.2 8.5 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
Texas   48.3 28.7 12.7 8.1 1.7 0.4 0.1
Texas Southern   97.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
UAB   86.3 10.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
UC Irvine   78.2 17.3 3.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
UCLA   61.4 24.8 10.0 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
Utah   26.2 22.2 23.6 12.6 8.6 4.6 2.2
VCU   54.2 38.3 4.1 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
Valparaiso   62.2 23.5 13.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Villanova   3.1 15.3 22.2 24.2 12.8 12.6 9.8
Virginia   4.6 19.8 19.1 22.0 11.9 12.4 10.2
West Virginia   36.5 25.7 31.4 4.1 1.8 0.5 0.1
Wichita St.   26.1 34.4 18.5 15.5 3.8 1.1 0.7
Wisconsin   4.7 13.3 17.6 27.5 19.4 7.0 10.5
Wofford   73.0 20.8 5.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wyoming   85.2 10.9 3.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Xavier   44.5 30.9 18.8 4.1 1.3 0.3 0.1

Just in case you’re having trouble reading that table, here is a written breakdown for Xavier:

  • Lost in the Second Round in 44.5 percent of all simulations.
  • Lost in the Third Round in 30.9 percent of all simulations.
  • Lost in the Regional Semifinal in 18.8 percent of all simulations.
  • Lost in the Regional Final in 4.1 percent of all simulations.
  • Lost in the National Semifinal in 1.3 percent of all simulations.
  • Lost in the National Final in 0.3 percent of all simulations.
  • Won the National Championship in 0.1 percent of all simulations.

One final note: These are for entertainment purposes only. If you lose your house betting on the NCAA tournament, don’t blame me. On the other hand, if you win big, by all means sing my praises and send me a check.

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